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	<title>Are we falling or flying ... and will we ever know? &#187; shenandoah valley</title>
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		<title>Netflix, its Algorithm, My Neighbors, and Me.</title>
		<link>http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/1621</link>
		<comments>http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/1621#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Jul 2009 22:10:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>andi</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fallingorflying.com/?p=1621</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I still haven&#8217;t quite figured out how Netflix&#8216;s business model keeps it profitable - even with a paid subscriber base of 10,000,000, there are a lot of operational costs behind Netflix.com, from software engineering to shipping costs to and from that paid subscriber base; each queued title shipped as a DVD or BluRay disk includes a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I still haven&#8217;t quite figured out how <a title="Movies, Movies, Movies, and MORE!" href="http://www.netflix.com" target="_blank"><a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/netflix" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with netflix">Netflix</a></a>&#8216;s business model keeps it profitable - even with a paid <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/subscriber-base" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with subscriber base">subscriber base</a> of 10,000,000, there are a lot of operational costs behind <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/netflix" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with netflix">Netflix</a>.com, from software engineering to shipping costs to and from that paid <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/subscriber-base" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with subscriber base">subscriber base</a>; each queued title shipped as a DVD or BluRay disk includes a postage paid return envelope.</p>
<p>Thankfully, <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/netflix" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with netflix">Netflix</a>&#8216;s business model <a title="Wall Street Journal | Netflix 2Q Profit Climbs 22% " href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090723-722688.html" target="_blank">does</a> work.  My best guess is <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/netflix" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with netflix">Netflix</a>&#8216;s &#8220;typical&#8221; customer is not as avid a consumer of the over 90,000 titles in its library as are Mark and I.</p>
<p>We&#8217;re also big fans of <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/netflix" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with netflix">Netflix</a>&#8216;s &#8220;<a title="Netflix | Watch Instantly!" href="http://www.netflix.com/BrowseGenres/Watch_Instantly/gev" target="_blank">Watch Instantly</a>&#8221; option, which no doubt cuts down on <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/netflix" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with netflix">Netflix</a>&#8216;s shipping costs and allows us to simultaneously watch movies together even when stuck on opposite coasts.  As an added bonus, &#8220;Watch Instantly&#8221; is very eco-friendly. Hopefully <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/netflix" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with netflix">Netflix</a> will soon solve whatever licensing or other challenges limit this viewing option to approximately 12,000 titles.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/netflix" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with netflix">Netflix</a>&#8216;s current prediction <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/algorithm" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with algorithm">algorithm</a> led us to movies which have become new favorites, including <a title="Outsourced " href="http://www.netflix.com/Movie/Outsourced/70068703?lnkce=seRtLn&amp;trkid=222336&amp;strkid=2113699324_0_0&amp;strackid=6a86b2b536e5789c_0_srl" target="_blank">Outsourced</a>.  It&#8217;s also interesting to compare &#8220;most popular titles&#8221; in our shared residences in the Pacific Northwest and in the Shenandoah Valley.  According to <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/netflix" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with netflix">Netflix</a>, the top four titles uniquely popular with our neighbors in suburban <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/seattle" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with seattle">Seattle</a> are &#8220;<a title="Ducktales, Vol. 1" href="http://www.netflix.com/Movie/Ducktales_Vol._1/70039437?trkid=211120" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: none;">Ducktales, Vol.1</span></a>,&#8221; &#8220;<a id="b070103521_0" style="color: #dc181e;" title="Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi" onmouseover="dB(this)" href="http://www.netflix.com/Movie/Rab_Ne_Bana_Di_Jodi/70103521?trkid=211120" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: none;">Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi</span></a>,&#8221; &#8220;<a id="b070083535_0" style="color: #dc181e;" title="Om Shanti Om" onmouseover="dB(this)" href="http://www.netflix.com/Movie/Om_Shanti_Om/70083535?trkid=211120" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: none;">Om Shanti Om</span></a>,&#8221; and &#8220;<a id="b060000480_0" style="color: #dc181e;" title="Mansfield Park" onmouseover="dB(this)" href="http://www.netflix.com/Movie/Mansfield_Park/60000480?trkid=211120" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: none;">Mansfield Park</span></a>;&#8221; while the top four picks of our neighbors in the the Shenandoah Valley are &#8220;<a id="b060036610_0" style="color: #dc181e; text-decoration: underline;" title="Gilmore Girls Season 1" onmouseover="dB(this)" href="http://www.netflix.com/Movie/Gilmore_Girls_Season_1/60036610?trkid=185159" target="_blank">Gilmore Girls: Season 1</a>,&#8221; &#8220;<a id="b070019969_0" style="color: #dc181e; text-decoration: underline;" title="Deadwood, Season 2" onmouseover="dB(this)" href="http://www.netflix.com/Movie/Deadwood_Season_2/70019969?trkid=185159" target="_blank">Deadwood: Season 2</a>,&#8221; &#8221;<a id="b070060539_1" style="color: #dc181e; text-decoration: underline;" onmouseover="dB(this)" href="http://www.netflix.com/Movie/The_Last_Sin_Eater/70060539?lnkce=seRtLn&amp;trkid=222336&amp;strkid=1093812530_0_0&amp;strackid=50c8965992352895_0_srl">The Last Sin Eater</a>,&#8221; and &#8220;<a id="b070117349_0" style="color: #dc181e; text-decoration: underline;" onmouseover="dB(this)" href="http://www.netflix.com/Movie/Nature_s_Most_Amazing_Events/70117349?trkid=185159">Nature&#8217;s Most Amazing Events</a>.&#8221;</p>
<p>It&#8217;s been very interesting following <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/netflix" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with netflix">Netflix</a>&#8216;s crowdsource <a title="The Netflix Prize" href="http://www.netflixprize.com//index" target="_blank">contest</a> to develop a customer-centric prediction <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/algorithm" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with algorithm">algorithm</a> &#8220;which substantially improves  the accuracy of predictions about how much someone is going to love a movie based on their movie preferences.&#8221;</p>
<p>Wired covered this competition several times, in <a title="&quot;Just a guy in a garage.&quot; " href="http://www.wired.com/techbiz/media/magazine/16-03/mf_netflix" target="_blank">February 2008</a> and last month, in <a title="$1 Million Netflix Prize So Close, They Can Taste It" href="http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2009/06/1-million-netflix-prize-so-close-they-can-taste-it/" target="_blank">June 2009</a>; <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/techcrunch" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with techcrunch">TechCrunch</a> much more frequently, as do other websites and bloggers.</p>
<p>Today on <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/techcrunch" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with techcrunch">TechCrunch</a>:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><a style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: #009f00; cursor: pointer;" title="The Netflix Prize Comes To A Buzzer-Beater, Nailbiting Finish" rel="bookmark" href="http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/07/26/the-netflix-prize-comes-to-a-buzzer-beater-nailbiting-finish/" target="_blank">The <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/netflix" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with netflix">Netflix</a> Prize Comes To A Buzzer-Beater, Nailbiting Finish</a></p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">by <a style="text-decoration: underline; font-weight: bold; color: #009f00; cursor: pointer;" title="Posts by Jason Kincaid" rel="nofollow" href="http://www.techcrunch.com/author/jason/">Jason Kincaid</a> on July 26, 2009</p>
<p style="line-height: 19px; margin-top: 1em; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; padding-left: 30px;">Who knew statistical computing competitions could be so cut throat? Since we <a style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: #009f00;" href="http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/07/25/netflix-prize-leaders-one-upped-with-one-day-remaining/">reported</a> on the contest last night, two teams in the <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/netflix" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with netflix">Netflix</a> Prize have spent the last few hours jumping back and forth on the <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/netflix" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with netflix">Netflix</a> leaderboard as the three-year-long competition ticked into its final moments, with last minute sniping submissions coming from both sides. Finally, the results are in: The Ensemble has managed to come from behind to upset BellKor’s <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/pragmatic-chaos" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with pragmatic chaos">Pragmatic Chaos</a> with a top submission of 10.10% — an improvement of .01% — only 4 minutes before the contest closed.</p>
<p style="line-height: 19px; margin-top: 1em; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; padding-left: 30px;">It’s been a long road to get here. Over the last three years computer science teams around the world have been vying for the <a style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: #009f00;" href="http://www.netflixprize.com/"><a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/netflix" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with netflix">Netflix</a> Prize<img id="snap_com_shot_link_icon" style="float: none; position: static; max-width: 2000px; max-height: 2000px; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-family: 'trebuchet ms', arial, helvetica, sans-serif; left: auto; top: auto; line-height: normal; background-color: transparent; background-image: url(http://i.ixnp.com/images/v6.1/theme/silver/palette.gif); background-repeat: no-repeat; width: 14px; height: 12px; padding-top: 1px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: top; display: inline; visibility: visible; background-position: -1128px 0px; margin: 0px !important; border: 0px initial initial;" src="http://i.ixnp.com/images/v6.1/t.gif" alt="" /></a> — a competition that invited teams to try to improve on <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/netflix" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with netflix">Netflix</a>’s movie recommendation <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/algorithm" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with algorithm">algorithm</a> by 10%, with a reward of $1 million to the best submission. Since then teams have gotten progressively closer to the magical 10% mark, but it wasn’t until last month when a number of top teams joined forces to form BellKor’s <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/pragmatic-chaos" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with pragmatic chaos">Pragmatic Chaos</a> that the barrier was finally broken, with a score of 10.08%. However, their announcement kicked off a 30 day last call period where other teams were invited to make their final submissions.<a style="text-decoration: underline; font-weight: bold; color: #009f00; cursor: pointer; float: right; display: block; background-image: url(http://cache0.techcrunch.com/wp-content/themes/techcrunchmu/images/arrow_right.png); background-repeat: no-repeat; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background-color: initial; padding-right: 20px; background-position: 100% 0%;" title="The Netflix Prize Comes To A Buzzer-Beater, Nailbiting Finish" rel="nofollow" href="http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/07/26/the-netflix-prize-comes-to-a-buzzer-beater-nailbiting-finish/" target="_blank">Read More</a></p>
<p>Then again &#8211; the better the <a href="http://www.fallingorflying.com/archives/tag/algorithm" class="st_tag internal_tag" rel="tag nofollow" title="Posts tagged with algorithm">algorithm</a>, the bigger the conundrum of &#8220;so many options, so little time.&#8221;</p>
<p>So &#8211; time to move the Roku box I use for &#8220;Watching Instantly&#8221; into my too rarely used home gym.  While I&#8217;m at it, I should make sure the only way I can power the Roku box and TV is by pedaling the stationary bike, or by actually using the eliptical trainer&#8230; crowdsource solution, anyone?</p>
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